Hear Me Out

Coolest Class at AU

So I'm in the best class at AU. No really. It's called Presidential Campaign 2008. Basically, the class is all about studying the McCain/Obama battle for the White House. There's no set curriculum. No set topics for each class. And no big textbook to read.

However, the class isn't a breeze either. Our professor sends us a whole list of news articles to read each week (usually the day or two before class), and we have briefing papers due every Tuesday on issues, strategies, media, constituent groups and more. Plus, although the class is only 3 credits, it meets for 5 hours a week - one block class on Wednesday and one block class on Thursday.

But that's not even the best part. The class is on TV! That's right, our professor started a partnership with FOX5 here in DC. So every Thursday, our class discussion is streamed live online! Plus, they send a camera crew and give us a section on their 5pm news.

Here's the website if you're interested. And feel free to tune in tomorrow!

Rainy Days

Well, Hannah is here. And a bunch of my friends' Facebook statuses say "Go away rain" or "I hate tropical storm Hannah" - but I don't mind the weather.

For me, one of the most relaxing things is waking up late on a rainy day, drinking hot chocolate (I totally made myself a cup this morning), and staring outside at the drops hitting the ground. It's almost as good as sitting by a fire pit - almost.

But rainy days tend to make for lazy days, at least for me. I'm looking up at my white board (I LOVE white boards, btw), and I see all the reading I have for classes. I'm totally unmotivated to do anything, though. I just want to hang out and be lazy.

Unfortunately, today I can't afford to be lazy. I have so much to do that I better get to work. Work, work, work.

Just A Thought.

Presidential elections aren't about getting the most people to vote for you (just ask Al Gore).  It's about getting the most people in the right states to vote for you. It's about the map. The electoral map, of course.

Let's compare Bush/Gore in 2004 with McCain/Obama today using the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of recent surveys. Based on their individual battleground state average polls, RCP has identified eight swing states up for grabs in 2008.

George W. Bush won seven out of eight of the current toss-up states in 2004, including Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Michigan and New   Hampshire are the only swing states that voted for Kerry four years ago.

What does all of that mean? McCain's playing defense. Big time.

If Barack Obama can just hold Michigan, all he has to do is win North Carolina, Florida, or Ohio. If he can hold New Hampshire as well, you can add Virginia to that list.

Remember, Obama only has to win one of these states.

John McCain picked Sarah Palin for a number of reasons, but one of them was to change the campaign, energize the electorate, and ultimately, try to shake up the map.

Palin is McCain's Hail Mary pass.

This election is Obama's to lose.

Electoral Map

I thought I might talk a little bit more about the electoral map, since the popular vote doesn't matter in presidential elections (just ask Al Gore). In case you're interested, I've posted my prediction below. I made this map a few months ago. I was tempted to change it when McCain got his act together over the summer, but I still don't think he'll be able to fend off Obama in many of the swing states.

In fact, I think this election may be remarkably unremarkable. If the 18-21 age group actually shows up to vote, it could swing the election in a big way. And in a way that the polls wouldn't predict.

Think about it. Do you have a landline in your dormroom or apartment at school? I doubt it. And have you ever gotten a call from a pollster on your cell phone? I also highly doubt it. So if pollsters can't reach the 18-21 age group, and that group breaks heavily towards Obama (as it probably will), it could be a game-changer.

I think election night may end pretty early. McCain won't have a chance in some so-called swing states like Pennsylvania, and Obama has a realistic shot at stealing Virginia, Ohio, and/or North Carolina from the Republicans. If that happens, we'll all be in bed before 11pm Eastern time on election night, and Obama will have crushed McCain and earned over 300 electoral votes.

I'm just saying, considering the youth vote and the pro-Democrat political environment - it's possible.

Viewers

More people watched John McCain's speech than Barack Obama's. Reuters reported that McCain drew 38.9 million viewers, compared to Obama's 38.3 million. How is that even POSSIBLE!? Whatever your politics, it's well-recognized that Obama is a MUCH better speaker than McCain. So much better, in fact, that the McCain campaign has been attacking Obama for his fluffly language and "empty words." Overall, the GOP convention just beat out the DNC (34.5 million to 30.2 million), making the RNC the most-watched party convention on television - ever.

But just because more people were watching, doesn't mean you're winning. Just a quick glance at the electoral map shows that McCain is definitely playing from behind - which (in my opinion) is why he went with a hail-mary pass in choosing Palin as his running mate.

Public Speaking

I added a Communications major because I loved the practical skills that AU's School of Communication teaches. So you can imagine how excited I was for my Public Speaking class.

It's interesting, our professor (who's awesome, btw) asked us what we thought of public speaking in general. I realized that I definitely get nervous - as most people do - but that I haven't really had that much public speaking experience. So the class will be great for me. I'll get to practice it, and see where my strengths and weaknesses lie.

I took Speechwriting last semester, which was amazing! And I'm especially excited that we're going to write all of the speeches we'll deliver this year in Public Speaking. Overall, it'd be great to be a good writer, a good speaker, and just an overall good communicator!

Palin

Boy, did Sarah Palin come out swinging tonight! I felt so bad for her, because I feel like the media treated her unfairly. They were questioning her choice to accept the VP slot because she has 5 kids, when no one would ever question a man on family issues like that. Todd Palin is a stay-at-home dad, so I don't understand the difference. In my opinion, it's sexism. I understand that Democrats wanted to have the first woman VP or President, but that's no excuse to be hostile towards Palin because of her gender. Plus, just because Palin is Republican doesn't make her any less of a woman.

Anyway, she (or her speechwriter, really) was really tough on Obama tonight. I liked her fighting back against all of the attacks, but I was a bit uncomfortable with how negative she went. I hope it doesn't destroy her credibility. Here are a few of the attack lines from her speech:

"I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a "community organizer," except that you have actual responsibilities. I might add that in small towns, we don't quite know what to make of a candidate who lavishes praise on working people when they are listening, and then talks about how bitterly they cling to their religion and guns when those people aren't listening."

"We tend to prefer candidates who don't talk about us one way in Scranton and another way in San Francisco."

"Our opponents say, again and again, that drilling will not solve all of America's energy problems - as if we all didn't know that already. But the fact that drilling won't solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all."

"I've noticed a pattern with our opponent. Maybe you have, too. We've all heard his dramatic speeches before devoted followers. And there is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform - not even in the state senate.

"This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting, and never use the word 'victory' except when he's talking about his own campaign."

"But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed ... when the roar of the crowd fades away ... when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot - what exactly is our opponent's plan? What does he actually seek to accomplish, after he's done turning back the waters and healing the planet? The answer is to make government bigger ... take more of your money ... give you more orders from Washington ... and to reduce the strength of America in a dangerous world. America needs more energy ... our opponent is against producing it. Victory in Iraq is finally in sight ... he wants to forfeit. Terrorist states are seeking new-clear weapons without delay ... he wants to meet them without preconditions. Al Qaeda terrorists still plot to inflict catastrophic harm on America ... he's worried that someone won't read them their rights? Government is too big ... he wants to grow it. Congress spends too much ... he promises more."

What do you think? Too harsh, not harsh enough, or just right?

AMPL

So I'm sitting in a class right now called AMPL. I realize that I probably shouldn't be blogging in class, but oh well - today is just orientation, so I'm not missing much if I zone out for a few minutes.

AMPL stands for Applied Music Performance Lab. See, I take saxophone lessons through AU. I'm not a music major or anything fancy, but it's still a great program! So on Wednesday afternoons, all of the musicians taking lessons (voice and instrument) get together in the recital hall and watch live performances of their peers.

So today we've got a jazz combo playing, which should be really cool. AMPL is an awesome program that helps music students socialize and learn together. Plus, it's a chance to show off your stuff if you want to perform. If you play an intstrument, or want to learn an instrument, you should check out lessons. You take them for credit, so they're really cheap!

Sarah Palin

I was so excited when McCain picked Sarah Palin as his VP Nominee! I love when politicians throw the media a curve ball. Plus, I think it was a risky, yet brilliant pick by McCain. Yes, she's inexperienced, but she's a unique mix of a woman and a strong conservative. I think McCain can reassure his base AND pick up women voters from Hilary Clinton at the same time!

Nevertheless, I still think he's playing from behind in this election. I'm actually surprised that Obama doesn't have a much bigger lead. But we'll see what happens.

Oh, and did you hear that Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter is pregnant? I'm not sure it'll effect the election in a big way, but it is significant that McCain knew about this when he picked Palin. I think the story will blow over in a day or so, especially with Obama refusing to attack McCain on family or character issues (which is a GREAT example, btw). We'll just have to watch and find out!

Ben's Chili Bowl

Last Friday, we (Gathering students) took a trip to Ben's Chili Bowl, one of the most historic restaurants in DC! The food was awesome! I had a half-smoke (sausage) with chili, and my friend Niko and I split a huge serving of chili cheese fries.

Ben's Chili Bowl is located on U St. and is totally metro accessible on the green line. The atmosphere is electrifying. The restaurant is almost always full, probably because of the great food and cheap prices. Plus, there are pictures of famous people who eaten there all over the walls. We saw pictures of everyone from Colin Powell to Hilary Clinton.

If you haven't checked out Ben's Chili Bowl yet, it's a must-see if you're in DC for any period of time. Their menu isn't huge - mostly chili dogs, chili half-smokes, chili burgers, chili fries, or just chili in a bowl - but it's great!