Presidential elections aren't about getting the most people to vote for you (just ask Al Gore). It's about getting the most people in the right states to vote for you. It's about the map. The electoral map, of course.
Let's compare Bush/Gore in 2004 with McCain/Obama today using the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of recent surveys. Based on their individual battleground state average polls, RCP has identified eight swing states up for grabs in 2008.
George W. Bush won seven out of eight of the current toss-up states in 2004, including Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Michigan and New Hampshire are the only swing states that voted for Kerry four years ago.
What does all of that mean? McCain's playing defense. Big time.
If Barack Obama can just hold Michigan, all he has to do is win North Carolina, Florida, or Ohio. If he can hold New Hampshire as well, you can add Virginia to that list.
Remember, Obama only has to win one of these states.
John McCain picked Sarah Palin for a number of reasons, but one of them was to change the campaign, energize the electorate, and ultimately, try to shake up the map.
Palin is McCain's Hail Mary pass.
This election is Obama's to lose.
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